Closed Market
In prediction markets, a market becomes closed when it reaches its predefined closing date. After this point, participants can no longer buy or sell outcomes.
Closing a market prevents trading after outcomes are effectively known or highly predictable. It protects fairness and data integrity. Once closed, probabilities stop updating through trades. The market remains in a waiting state until resolution and settlement occur.
A closed market is not yet finalized. The outcome may still be unknown, unconfirmed, or under review. For analysts, closed markets represent the final snapshot of belief before resolution. They are often used for accuracy and performance evaluation.
Why It Matters
Closed markets define the endpoint of forecasting. They mark when probabilities become fixed and suitable for evaluation.
How is a closed market different from a resolved market in prediction markets?
A closed market stops accepting trades but has not yet confirmed an outcome. A resolved market has a final outcome. Closed markets are inactive but unresolved. This distinction is important for analysis.
When do prediction markets usually close?
Markets typically close shortly before the event resolves or when further trading could create unfair advantages. The timing depends on event type and resolution rules. Some markets close well in advance, others close close to resolution. Closing dates are defined at market creation.
How should closed markets be used in prediction markets data analysis?
Closed markets are used for final forecast evaluation. Analysts use the last prices before closure as final forecasts. Closed markets should not be treated as resolved until outcomes are confirmed. Proper status filtering is essential.
Real-World Example
On Kalshi, a market predicting an economic release may close trading shortly before the official data is published. The market then waits for resolution.
Closed Market and FinFeedAPI
FinFeedAPI’s Prediction Markets API provides prediction markets data that includes market status indicators. Analysts can identify closed markets and retrieve final probability values. This supports final forecast analysis, backtesting, and lifecycle tracking. The API enables consistent handling of closed markets across prediction markets.