Dispute Bond
In prediction markets, outcomes are resolved based on predefined rules or external data sources. Sometimes participants believe a resolution is incorrect or incomplete.
A dispute bond requires the challenger to lock up funds when submitting a dispute. This creates a cost for disputing and discourages low-effort or bad-faith challenges.
If the dispute is validated, the bond may be returned or rewarded. If it fails, the bond is usually forfeited. This mechanism helps keep prediction markets data accurate and trustworthy.
Why It Matters
Dispute bonds protect prediction markets from manipulation and constant challenges. They help ensure that only serious, well-supported disputes affect final probabilities and outcomes.
What is a dispute bond in prediction markets?
In prediction markets, a dispute bond is collateral posted to contest an outcome resolution. It signals that the participant strongly believes the resolution is wrong. The bond creates accountability by attaching a cost to disputes. This improves confidence in final market outcomes.
How do dispute bonds affect prediction markets data quality?
Dispute bonds reduce unnecessary resolution changes that could distort prediction markets data. By filtering out weak disputes, they help maintain stable and credible outcomes. This makes historical market data more reliable for analysis. Analysts can trust that resolved outcomes reflect careful review.
Why are dispute bonds relevant when using prediction markets APIs?
Prediction markets APIs deliver data that depends on finalized outcomes. Understanding dispute bonds helps analysts interpret resolution timing and revisions. It provides context for delayed settlements or probability adjustments. APIs allow these resolution dynamics to be tracked across markets.
Real-World Example
On Manifold, a participant may post a dispute bond if they believe an outcome was resolved incorrectly. The bond ensures that the challenge is backed by real conviction and evidence.
Dispute Bond and FinFeedAPI
FinFeedAPI’s Prediction Markets API provides access to prediction markets data affected by dispute and resolution processes. Analysts can monitor outcome changes, resolution timing, and post-dispute price behavior. This supports data validation, audit analysis, and confidence tracking. The API enables consistent monitoring of dispute-related effects across prediction markets.