Disputed Outcome
In prediction markets, an outcome may be flagged as disputed when participants believe the proposed result does not match the market’s rules or resolution source. This triggers a review process before the market can finalize.
Disputed outcomes typically arise from ambiguous data, conflicting reports, or edge cases in event definitions. The market temporarily halts settlement while evidence is examined. The dispute process follows predefined rules. These can involve validator review, governance input, or time-bound challenges depending on market design.
Disputes add friction but improve correctness. They help ensure that final outcomes reflect verified facts rather than premature or incorrect decisions.
For analysts, disputed outcomes explain resolution delays and revisions in prediction markets data. They mark periods where outcomes are provisional and should not be treated as final.
Why It Matters
Disputed outcomes protect accuracy and trust. They prevent incorrect resolutions from becoming permanent in prediction markets data.
When does an outcome become disputed in prediction markets?
An outcome becomes disputed when a participant formally challenges the proposed result within the allowed window. The challenge must cite a mismatch with the market rules or resolution source. Once disputed, the market pauses finalization. This ensures the issue is reviewed before settlement.
What happens to trading and settlement during a disputed outcome?
During a disputed outcome, settlement is paused and payouts are delayed. Trading may already be closed if the market passed its closing date. The market remains unresolved until the dispute process completes. Only then can resolution and settlement proceed.
How should disputed outcomes be handled in prediction markets data analysis?
Disputed outcomes should be excluded from accuracy and backtesting analysis. Analysts treat associated probabilities and outcomes as provisional. Including them can distort performance metrics. Proper status filtering is essential when working with prediction markets data.
Real-World Example
On Polymarket, if an event resolves based on an unclear announcement, participants may dispute the outcome. The market remains unresolved until the correct source is reviewed and confirmed.
Disputed Outcome and FinFeedAPI
FinFeedAPI’s Prediction Markets API provides prediction markets data, analysts can detect when outcomes enter dispute, track review periods, and identify final resolutions. This supports lifecycle-aware analysis, accurate backtesting, and data integrity checks. The API enables consistent handling of disputed outcomes across prediction markets.