Event Contract Mark Price
The mark price is a snapshot of where the market stands right now. It is usually derived from recent trades, bids and asks, or pricing formulas, depending on market design. Unlike the last traded price, it aims to represent a fair, up-to-date probability.
In prediction markets, the mark price helps smooth short-term noise. It avoids overreacting to a single small trade and instead reflects the broader state of the market. On platforms like Polymarket, Kalshi, Myriad, and Manifold, the mark price is what most users see as the “current” probability in prediction markets data.
Because it updates continuously, the mark price is widely used for monitoring, analytics, and comparison across markets. It is not a guarantee of execution, but it is the best available estimate of collective belief at that moment.
Why It Matters
The mark price is the primary signal people use to read a market. It makes prediction markets data easier to interpret by providing a stable, standardized probability reference.
How is the mark price different from the last traded price?
The last traded price reflects a single transaction, which may be small or outdated. The mark price incorporates broader market information, such as recent activity or current quotes. This makes the mark price a more reliable indicator within prediction markets data.
Why do analysts rely on mark prices instead of raw trades?
Because mark prices reduce noise and improve consistency. Analysts comparing markets or tracking trends need a stable reference that updates even when trading slows. Mark prices provide that stability for prediction markets data analysis.
How can mark prices be misleading?
If liquidity is very low, the mark price may lag reality or reflect outdated assumptions. Analysts should always consider volume, spread, and recent activity alongside the mark price when interpreting prediction markets data.
Real-World Example
A Polymarket event contract shows a 68% mark price even though no trade has occurred in the last few minutes. The mark price reflects where buyers and sellers currently align, giving a clearer signal than the last executed trade.
Event Contract Mark Price and FinFeedAPI
Working with mark prices requires clean, consistent market snapshots. FinFeed's Prediction Markets API provides structured prediction markets data—including prices, trades, and OHLCV —so developers and analysts can track real-time consensus, compare markets, and build reliable forecasting tools.