Event Question
In prediction markets, the event question translates real-world uncertainty into a clear, testable prompt. It specifies what must happen for an outcome to be considered true or false. The wording of the event question sets boundaries. It defines timing, conditions, and what evidence will be used at resolution.
Event questions are tightly linked to outcomes and resolution rules. If the question is unclear, even correct probabilities can become meaningless. Well-constructed event questions lead to cleaner trading behavior. Participants know exactly what they are forecasting and can express beliefs more confidently.
For analysts, the event question provides essential context for prediction markets data. Every probability movement must be interpreted in relation to what the question actually asks. Poorly framed questions often lead to disputes, delayed resolution, or noisy signals. Clear questions improve forecast quality and data reliability.
Why It Matters
The event question determines what the market is truly predicting. Clear questions lead to better forecasts, fair resolution, and trustworthy prediction markets data.
How does an event question affect forecast accuracy in prediction markets?
Event questions shape how participants interpret uncertainty. Clear and specific questions reduce misinterpretation and improve forecast alignment. Ambiguous questions often lead to scattered beliefs and weaker signals. Forecast accuracy tends to be higher when the question is precise.
What makes an event question hard to resolve in prediction markets?
Event questions become difficult to resolve when timing, conditions, or sources are unclear. Vague language can create edge cases that are hard to judge objectively. This often leads to delays or disputes during resolution. Resolution complexity directly impacts data quality.
How do event questions influence prediction markets data analysis?
Event questions define how probabilities should be interpreted and compared. Analysts rely on them to understand what belief changes actually represent. Poorly specified questions can distort trend analysis and backtesting. Clear questions produce cleaner, more interpretable prediction markets data.
Real-World Example
On Polymarket, an event question might ask whether a specific law will pass by a fixed date. The exact wording determines what counts as passage and when the market resolves.
Event Question and FinFeedAPI
FinFeedAPI’s Prediction Markets API provides event question text as part of prediction markets data. Analysts use this information to correctly interpret probabilities, outcomes, and resolution logic. Event questions help structure datasets, filtering, and analytical models. The API enables consistent, question-aware analysis across prediction markets.