Forecast Maturity Date
In prediction markets, forecasts change as new information enters the market. The forecast maturity date defines when this updating process ends and the forecast is locked in.
This date usually aligns with a cutoff before resolution, such as the start of an event or the release of official data. After the maturity date, no new trades or signals should affect the implied probability.
Forecast maturity dates help separate active forecasting from outcome verification. They clarify when a probability reflects live expectations versus when it becomes a fixed historical value.
They are especially important for time-based analysis. Analysts use maturity dates to align forecasts across markets, compare accuracy at consistent points, and avoid mixing late-stage certainty with early-stage uncertainty.
Over time, studying forecasts at their maturity dates helps evaluate calibration and timing. It reveals whether markets converge too early, too late, or at the right moment.
Why It Matters
Forecast maturity dates define when a prediction becomes actionable or final. They help users interpret prediction markets data consistently and avoid misreading late-stage probabilities.
What is a forecast maturity date in prediction markets?
In prediction markets, a forecast maturity date is when probability updates stop. It defines the last moment that market activity can influence the forecast. This ensures that forecasts are evaluated fairly and consistently. It also separates forecasting from resolution.
How does the forecast maturity date affect prediction markets data?
Prediction markets data behaves differently before and after the maturity date. Before maturity, probabilities are dynamic and reactive to information. After maturity, values remain fixed even if external news appears. Analysts rely on this boundary for clean comparisons and backtesting.
Why is the forecast maturity date important for prediction markets APIs?
Prediction markets APIs provide time-series data that spans both active and mature forecasts. Knowing the maturity date helps analysts filter data correctly and align forecasts across markets. It is critical for performance evaluation and model training. APIs make maturity-aware analysis scalable and repeatable.
Real-World Example
On Kalshi, a market predicting an economic release may stop updating probabilities once the data is published. That cutoff represents the forecast maturity date.
Forecast Maturity Date and FinFeedAPI
FinFeedAPI’s Prediction Markets API provides prediction markets data with precise timestamps needed to identify forecast maturity dates. Analysts can track probability changes up to maturity and analyze final forecast states. This supports accuracy measurement, timing analysis, and forecast evaluation. The API enables consistent handling of maturity dates across prediction markets.