Forecast Range
In prediction markets, probabilities are not fixed. A forecast range captures the highest and lowest prices an outcome reaches during a defined period.
This range reflects how much beliefs fluctuated as information arrived. A narrow range suggests stable expectations, while a wide range signals uncertainty or disagreement. Forecast ranges are influenced by timing, liquidity, and event clarity. Early-stage markets often show wide ranges that narrow as resolution approaches. Ranges are also useful for comparing markets. Two outcomes with the same final probability may have very different forecast ranges, revealing different paths to consensus.
For analysts, forecast range adds context to prediction markets data. It shows not just where belief ended, but how turbulent the forecasting process was.
Why It Matters
Forecast range reveals stability and uncertainty. It helps users understand whether a probability reflects steady belief or a volatile forecasting process.
How is forecast range different from a single probability in prediction markets?
A single probability shows belief at one moment in time. Forecast range shows how much that belief moved across time. This helps distinguish stable consensus from shifting opinion. Range adds historical depth to prediction markets data.
What does a wide forecast range indicate in prediction markets?
A wide forecast range usually indicates high uncertainty or disagreement. It may reflect conflicting information, low liquidity, or strong behavioral reactions. Markets with wide ranges often take longer to converge. Analysts treat these forecasts with more caution.
How is forecast range used in prediction markets data analysis?
Analysts use forecast range to measure volatility and belief stability. It is often combined with forecast persistence and confidence signals. Narrow ranges strengthen confidence in forecasts, while wide ranges highlight risk. Range analysis improves model calibration and interpretation.
Real-World Example
On Polymarket, an early-stage election market may trade between 0.30 and 0.70 for weeks. That span represents the forecast range before expectations stabilize.
Forecast Range and FinFeedAPI
FinFeedAPI’s Prediction Markets API provides historical prediction markets data needed to calculate forecast ranges. Analysts can track probability highs and lows over custom time windows. This supports volatility analysis, confidence assessment, and forecast evaluation. The API enables consistent forecast range analysis across prediction markets.