Forecast Settlement Layer
In prediction markets, forecasts remain provisional until an outcome is officially resolved. The forecast settlement layer handles this transition from live probabilities to final settlement.
This layer verifies the outcome using predefined rules, data sources, or governance processes. Once confirmed, it calculates payouts, releases collateral, and closes open positions. The settlement layer acts as a bridge between forecasting and economic results. It ensures that prediction markets data moves cleanly from dynamic signals to finalized records.
A well-designed settlement layer reduces ambiguity and disputes. Clear resolution logic and transparent execution improve trust in both payouts and historical market data. For analysts, the settlement layer defines when a forecast becomes final. It explains why probabilities stop updating and how resolution timing affects confidence and accuracy metrics.
Why It Matters
Without a reliable settlement layer, prediction markets cannot function properly. Accurate settlement ensures that probabilities, incentives, and historical data remain trustworthy.
What is a forecast settlement layer in prediction markets?
In prediction markets, a forecast settlement layer is the system responsible for resolving outcomes and distributing payouts. It enforces the contract’s resolution rules and finalizes results. This ensures forecasts translate into real economic consequences. It is essential for market integrity.
How does the forecast settlement layer affect prediction markets data?
The settlement layer determines when prediction markets data becomes final. It influences resolution timestamps, outcome certainty, and post-resolution stability. Delays or changes at this layer can affect historical analysis. Analysts rely on it to separate live forecasts from settled results.
Why is the forecast settlement layer important for prediction markets APIs?
Prediction markets APIs deliver data across forecasting and settlement phases. Understanding the settlement layer helps analysts interpret when probabilities are final and when revisions are possible. It provides context for resolution timing and payout-related changes. APIs make settlement-aware analysis consistent across markets.
Real-World Example
On Kalshi, once official economic data is released, the settlement layer confirms the outcome and closes the market. Probabilities stop updating and payouts are processed based on the final result.
Forecast Settlement Layer and FinFeedAPI
FinFeedAPI’s Prediction Markets API provides prediction markets data that reflects settlement status and resolution timing. Analysts can identify when markets move from active forecasting to final settlement. This supports accuracy evaluation, lifecycle modeling, and data validation. The API enables consistent tracking of settlement effects across prediction markets.