Historical Forecast Feed
In prediction markets, probabilities change continuously as new information appears. A historical forecast feed captures these changes as a time-ordered sequence of past forecasts.
This feed includes probability snapshots, timestamps, and often related trading activity. It allows analysts to see not just the final prediction, but the full path the market took to get there. Historical forecast feeds are essential for evaluating market behavior. They reveal when beliefs shifted, how fast markets reacted, and whether early signals were accurate or misleading.
They also help identify patterns like overreaction, delayed updates, or persistent bias. Without a historical feed, these dynamics are invisible.
For analysts, historical forecast feeds turn prediction markets data into a learning resource. They support backtesting, calibration checks, and behavioral analysis across many events.
Why It Matters
Single probabilities hide context. Historical forecast feeds show how beliefs formed and changed, making prediction markets data far more useful for analysis and modeling.
What is a historical forecast feed in prediction markets?
In prediction markets, a historical forecast feed is a time-series record of past probabilities. It shows how the market’s expectations evolved before resolution. This helps evaluate forecasting behavior, not just outcomes. It is critical for performance analysis.
How is a historical forecast feed used in prediction markets data analysis?
Historical forecast feeds are used to compare forecasts against final outcomes. Analysts study timing, stability, and accuracy of probability changes. This helps identify early signals, late corrections, and recurring biases. It supports backtesting and model improvement.
Why are historical forecast feeds important for prediction markets APIs?
Prediction markets APIs are the primary way to access historical forecast feeds at scale. APIs provide structured, time-stamped probability data across many markets. This enables automated analysis, research, and monitoring. Without APIs, historical forecast analysis is difficult to maintain.
Real-World Example
On Polymarket, analysts may review how an election market’s probability changed over several months. The historical forecast feed shows when major belief shifts occurred and how accurate early forecasts were.
Historical Forecast Feed and FinFeedAPI
FinFeedAPI’s Prediction Markets API provides access to historical forecast feeds across prediction markets. Analysts can retrieve time-series probability data for backtesting, calibration analysis, and behavioral research. This supports long-term forecasting evaluation and model development. The API enables consistent historical analysis across markets.