Human foresight reflects how individuals think about the future before any model or algorithm is applied. People draw on personal knowledge, pattern recognition, news, and intuition to form expectations about what might happen next. On its own, this foresight is often noisy, biased, or incomplete.
Prediction markets exist to aggregate human foresight at scale. On platforms like Polymarket, Kalshi, Myriad, and Manifold, thousands of individuals express their foresight through trades. The market then combines these views into a single probability. This process transforms scattered human judgment into structured prediction markets data.
Human foresight becomes most powerful when it is incentivized and aggregated. Markets reward accuracy, filter out weak signals over time, and surface the collective expectation rather than relying on any single person’s view.
Human foresight is the foundation of prediction markets. Without it, there would be no signal to aggregate and no meaningful prediction markets data.
Each trader brings a small piece of information, context, or reasoning. When traders act on that foresight, prices move. The market aggregates these actions into probabilities that reflect collective expectations. This makes prediction markets data far more informative than individual opinions.
Individuals make errors, but groups with diverse perspectives tend to cancel out biases. Prediction markets weight accurate forecasters more heavily over time through profits and losses. As a result, aggregated human foresight often produces well-calibrated prediction markets data, even when experts disagree.
Human foresight is affected by bias, emotion, overconfidence, and incomplete information. These weaknesses show up in markets as volatility, mispricing, or slow reactions. Studying prediction markets data helps analysts see where foresight performs well and where it breaks down.
On Manifold, users forecast whether a major technology company will announce a new product by a specific date. Each trader relies on personal foresight—industry knowledge, rumors, past behavior—and the market aggregates those views into a single probability that updates as expectations change.
Human foresight becomes measurable when it is captured as market data. FinFeed's Prediction Markets API provides structured prediction markets data that allows developers and analysts to study how human foresight evolves, aggregates, and converges into probabilities across many events.
