Inactive Market
In prediction markets, an inactive market is one where participants are not actively trading. Prices may technically be open to change, but no new trades are occurring.
Inactivity often appears in niche events, long-dated markets, or questions with low interest. Limited attention and low incentives reduce participation. Inactive markets can still display probabilities, but those prices may be stale. Without recent trades, probabilities do not reflect updated belief or new information.
Markets can move in and out of inactivity. A quiet market may become active again if attention increases or new information emerges. For analysts, inactivity is a warning signal. Prediction markets data from inactive markets requires careful interpretation because signals may lack support.
Why It Matters
Inactive markets can produce misleading probabilities. Recognizing inactivity helps users avoid treating stale prices as meaningful forecasts.
How can you tell if a prediction market is inactive?
An inactive market shows no recent trades, flat prices, and zero or near-zero trading volume. Timestamps reveal long gaps between updates. Active trader counts are usually very low. These signals are visible in prediction markets data.
Why do prediction markets become inactive?
Markets become inactive when interest is low or incentives are weak. Long-term events, unclear questions, or niche topics often attract fewer participants. Once attention shifts elsewhere, activity can drop sharply. Inactivity reflects lack of engagement, not resolution.
How should inactive markets be handled in prediction markets data analysis?
Inactive markets are usually filtered out or downweighted in analysis. Analysts avoid using them for real-time signals or accuracy evaluation. Inactivity is often treated as a confidence warning rather than a forecast. Proper filtering improves data reliability.
Real-World Example
On Polymarket, a highly specific or obscure policy question may remain open but show no trades for days. Despite visible probabilities, the market is inactive.
Inactive Market and FinFeedAPI
FinFeedAPI’s Prediction Markets API provides prediction markets data needed to detect inactive markets. Analysts can use volume, timestamps, and prices to identify low-activity conditions. This supports market filtering, confidence assessment, and signal quality control. The API enables consistent detection of inactive markets across prediction markets.