Kalshi is an exchange that allows people to buy and sell event-based contracts—such as whether inflation will rise, if the Federal Reserve will change interest rates, or whether certain policy decisions will occur. Each contract has a “Yes” or “No” outcome, and the price reflects the market’s expectation of the event. For example, a contract priced at $0.70 implies a 70% market-implied probability that the event will happen.
Unlike many prediction markets, Kalshi operates as a fully regulated exchange under the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This gives it a unique position in the financial ecosystem and allows more sophisticated participants—such as hedge funds, researchers, and economists—to use event contracts as part of their analysis and risk management. Kalshi treats event contracts similarly to futures, with defined payouts based on outcomes.
Event markets on Kalshi update in real time as traders react to economic data, political developments, and global news. This provides a live pulse on expectations around significant events. Market participants use Kalshi for speculation, hedging, or monitoring sentiment around economic indicators.
Kalshi helps turn real-world uncertainty into tradable information. It offers a transparent way to measure market expectations about economic and political events and provides a regulated environment for event-based forecasting.
Each contract asks a yes-or-no question, such as “Will inflation exceed 3% this month?” Traders buy or sell shares priced from $0.01 to $0.99. If the event happens, “Yes” pays out $1; if not, it pays $0. Prices reflect the market’s implied probability. As news and data updates, the contract price moves to reflect changing expectations.
Businesses, investors, and analysts can use Kalshi to hedge against specific risks—such as inflation changes, interest rate adjustments, or policy decisions. For example, an investor concerned about rising inflation can buy “Yes” contracts on higher CPI results. If inflation rises, the contract payout offsets losses in other parts of their portfolio. This targeted hedging is something traditional markets don’t always offer.
Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, meaning it operates under strict financial rules similar to traditional derivatives exchanges. It handles real money, supports institutional participation, and offers markets focused on verifiable economic data. Many global prediction markets are unregulated or limited, but Kalshi provides a formal structure for event-based trading in the U.S.
Ahead of a major CPI release, traders expect inflation to rise slightly. A “Yes” contract for “Will inflation exceed last month’s level?” trades at $0.63. After the report is published, if inflation does rise, the contract pays out $1 per share to holders of the “Yes” position.
FinFeedAPI’s Prediction Market API provides data for Kalshi’s contracts. This helps developers build forecasting tools, analyze market expectations, and track how probabilities shift around economic events.
