Late Signal
In prediction markets, a late signal emerges after most information has already been absorbed. It occurs shortly before trading stops or an outcome is resolved.
Late signals are often driven by decisive information, such as official confirmations, final data releases, or irreversible real-world actions. Because uncertainty is low, these signals tend to be strong. Not all late signals are informative. Some reflect last-minute behavioral reactions or liquidity imbalances rather than new facts. Late signals usually have less time to be tested by the market. Even correct late signals may not be fully reinforced through broad participation.
For analysts, late signals help explain final forecast changes in prediction markets data. They clarify whether last movements reflect genuine information or late-stage noise.
Why It Matters
Late signals often have the greatest impact on final forecasts. Understanding them helps users interpret last-minute probability shifts correctly.
What typically causes late signals in prediction markets?
Late signals are usually caused by official announcements, final confirmations, or events reaching a point of no return. Examples include certified results or finalized decisions. These inputs sharply reduce uncertainty. Markets react quickly when these signals appear.
Are late signals more reliable than early signals in prediction markets?
Late signals are generally more reliable because more information is available. However, they are not immune to noise or overreaction. Limited time for correction increases sensitivity. Context and support still matter.
How do analysts evaluate late signals using prediction markets data?
Analysts examine timing, volume, and persistence to evaluate late signals. Strong late signals are supported by rapid convergence and stable prices. Sudden spikes without volume may indicate fragility. Prediction markets data provides the needed context.
Real-World Example
On Polymarket, a sharp probability jump in the final hours before resolution following an official announcement is a late signal. Analysts then assess whether the move stabilizes before closure.
Late Signal and FinFeedAPI
FinFeedAPI’s Prediction Markets API provides prediction markets data needed to identify late signals. Analysts can analyze probability changes near closing time and align them with event timelines. This supports final forecast evaluation, reaction analysis, and signal classification. The API enables consistent late signal analysis across prediction markets.