A market outcome is the moment when uncertainty becomes clarity. In a prediction market, traders speculate on what they believe will happen—an election result, an interest-rate decision, an earnings surprise, or any measurable event. Throughout the market’s life, the price reflects shifting beliefs and probabilities. But once the real-world event occurs, the market outcome locks everything into place.
Before settlement, traders buy and sell shares representing possible outcomes. Each outcome has its own price, influenced by sentiment, news, and real-time information. When the event concludes—for example, when election results are confirmed or an economic report is released—the platform declares the official outcome based on objective data.
Once the outcome is determined, the prediction market resolves. Traders holding shares of the winning outcome receive full payout value, while those holding losing shares receive nothing. This final step closes the loop between speculation and reality, turning collective expectations into measurable results that can be analyzed and compared.
Market outcomes matter because they finalize all trades, resolve uncertainty, and provide clear performance data for traders, analysts, and forecasting models. They also reveal how accurate the crowd’s predictions were—both at peak sentiment and at the final moments before resolution.
Prediction market platforms rely on official, trusted sources to determine outcomes—such as government websites, court rulings, election boards, central bank statements, or verified news reports. They cross-check multiple sources to avoid disputes and ensure fairness. Only once the result is fully confirmed does the platform lock the market and publish the final outcome. This verification process protects traders from ambiguous or contested results.
Market outcomes offer a clean way to compare expectations against actual results. By analyzing how prices behaved before resolution—especially during the final hours—analysts can evaluate how well the market processed information and whether probabilities reflected reality. Over hundreds of events, these comparisons reveal patterns: which topics the crowd predicts well, where it struggles, and what types of events tend to surprise traders. This makes outcomes a powerful tool for improving forecasting models.
When the outcome is finalized, the platform settles all positions automatically. Traders holding winning shares receive a fixed payout (usually 1.00), while losing shares are valued at 0.00. Liquidity pools, open orders, and unsettled trades are closed out. The settlement also updates profit-and-loss records, allowing traders to see exactly how their forecasts performed. It’s the final snapshot that reveals whether a trader’s expectations aligned with reality.
A prediction market asks: “Will the Federal Reserve cut rates in June?” Traders buy “Yes” and “No” shares for weeks based on data, speeches, and speculation. When the official announcement is released, the outcome becomes clear. If the Fed announces a cut, all “Yes” shares settle at full value, and “No” shares drop to zero. The market closes instantly once the result is confirmed.
FinFeedAPI’s Prediction Market API allows developers to pull live and historical outcome data from prediction markets. This includes resolved markets, payout structures, timestamps, and probability trends leading up to the outcome. With this data, analysts can study forecasting accuracy, build leaderboards, visualize pre-resolution swings, or integrate outcome results into larger forecasting models and dashboards.
