Market Question
In prediction markets, the market question is the foundation of the entire event. It describes what will happen, under what conditions, and by when. A well-written market question removes ambiguity. It clearly defines the scope, timing, and criteria needed for resolution.
Market questions directly shape participant behavior. Small wording differences can lead to very different interpretations and trading patterns. They also determine how outcomes are structured. Binary, multiple-choice, or range-based markets all stem from how the question is framed.
For analysts, the market question provides essential context. All prediction markets data, probabilities, and outcomes must be interpreted through the lens of the original question.
Poorly phrased questions often lead to disputes or confusing signals. Clear questions improve forecast quality and data reliability.
Why It Matters
The market question defines what is being predicted. Clear questions lead to better forecasts, fairer resolution, and more reliable prediction markets data.
How does a market question influence trading behavior in prediction markets?
The phrasing of a market question directly affects how participants interpret risk and probability. Even small wording choices can change whether traders feel confident or uncertain about resolution. Clear questions tend to attract more consistent trading, while vague ones often increase hesitation. This impact is visible in volume, volatility, and confidence signals.
How does the wording of a market question affect prediction markets data?
Wording affects how participants interpret probability and risk. Ambiguous questions can lead to inconsistent trading behavior. Clear questions produce cleaner probability signals and fewer disputes. Analysts often see higher-quality prediction markets data from well-defined questions.
What makes a good market question for prediction markets?
A good market question is specific, measurable, and time-bound. It clearly defines how and when the outcome will be determined. It aligns with a reliable source of truth. Strong questions reduce confusion and improve forecast accuracy.
Real-World Example
On Polymarket, a market question might ask whether a specific bill will pass by a certain date. The exact wording determines what counts as passage and when the market resolves.
Market Question and FinFeedAPI
FinFeedAPI’s Prediction Markets API provides market question text as part of event metadata. Analysts use this information to interpret prediction markets data correctly and align forecasts with resolution logic. Market questions help structure datasets, filtering, and analysis. The API enables consistent use of market question context across prediction markets.