New Market
In prediction markets, a new market appears when an event is first listed and trading begins. At this stage, prices are based on limited participation and sparse information.
Early trading in a new market is often thin. Small trades can move probabilities significantly because liquidity and depth are still low. New markets are especially sensitive to initial assumptions and anchoring effects. Early prices can influence later belief even if they are weakly supported.
As awareness grows and more participants join, new markets often transition into more stable, active markets. Prices tend to adjust as information and participation increase.
New markets represent the earliest phase of prediction markets data. They are useful for studying initial belief formation, early bias, and learning dynamics.
Why It Matters
New markets show how expectations form from near-zero information. Understanding them helps users interpret early probabilities with appropriate caution.
How do new markets differ from active markets in prediction markets?
New markets are defined by timing, not activity. They have just opened and may or may not be active yet. Active markets show ongoing trading and engagement. A new market often becomes active later as attention builds.
Why are prices volatile in new prediction markets?
Prices are volatile because liquidity is low and few participants are involved. Early trades carry disproportionate influence. Anchoring and experimentation are common. Volatility usually declines as participation grows.
How should new markets be treated in prediction markets data analysis?
New markets should be treated as provisional signals. Analysts often downweight early prices or wait for sufficient activity before drawing conclusions. Early data is best used for studying belief formation, not accuracy. Proper handling prevents misinterpretation.
Real-World Example
On Polymarket, a newly listed market about a future election may show wide price swings in its first hours. These movements reflect early experimentation rather than stable consensus.
New Market and FinFeedAPI
FinFeedAPI’s Prediction Markets API provides prediction markets data from the moment a new market opens. Analysts can track initial prices, early volume, and the transition from new to active market states. This supports early-stage behavior analysis, bias detection, and lifecycle studies. The API enables consistent monitoring of new markets across prediction markets.