No Price
In prediction markets, outcomes are typically split into “Yes” and “No.” The No price represents the cost of holding a position that pays out if the event does not occur.
No price is often interpreted as the complement of the Yes price in binary markets. For example, if Yes is priced at 0.70, No is priced near 0.30, though small gaps can exist due to fees or liquidity. The No price changes as participants buy or sell No shares. Increased demand for No pushes the price higher, signaling growing belief that the event will not happen. No price captures collective skepticism. It reflects doubt, hedging behavior, or confidence that the outcome will fail.
For analysts, No price provides balance to Yes price signals. Together, they form the full probability picture within prediction markets data.
Why It Matters
No price shows the market’s confidence in an event not occurring. It helps users understand uncertainty from both sides of a prediction.
How does No price relate to Yes price in prediction markets?
In most binary prediction markets, Yes price and No price sum to approximately one. Differences can arise due to fees, spreads, or liquidity conditions. Analysts consider both prices together to assess market balance. Large gaps may signal inefficiency or friction.
How should No price be used in prediction markets data analysis?
No price helps analysts understand downside belief and hedging behavior. Rising No prices often indicate growing skepticism or risk reassessment. Analysts compare No price movements with liquidity and volume. This improves interpretation of belief shifts.
When is No price more informative than Yes price?
No price can be more informative during reversals or negative news. Sudden increases in No price may reveal early doubt before Yes price fully adjusts. Analysts track both sides to detect asymmetric reactions. This adds depth to prediction markets data analysis.
Real-World Example
On Polymarket, a No price of 0.40 indicates a meaningful chance the event will not occur. If new information weakens confidence, the No price may rise further.
No Price and FinFeedAPI
FinFeedAPI’s Prediction Markets API provides No price data alongside Yes price as part of outcome-level prediction markets data. Analysts can track both sides of the market to study balance, confidence, and reversals. This supports probability analysis, risk modeling, and forecast evaluation. The API enables consistent access to No price data across prediction markets.