Opinion Shift
In prediction markets, opinion shifts occur when participants collectively revise their views about an event. This is visible through sustained probability movement away from previous levels.
Opinion shifts are usually triggered by new information, clarification of uncertainty, or accumulation of evidence. They are not instantaneous spikes but changes that persist over time. Shifts can happen gradually or abruptly. Gradual shifts suggest steady learning, while abrupt shifts often follow decisive news or corrections to prior misjudgment.
Opinion shifts are different from short-term volatility. They represent a durable change in belief rather than temporary noise.
For analysts, opinion shifts are key moments in prediction markets data. They mark transitions in consensus and reveal how markets adapt to information.
Why It Matters
Opinion shifts show when markets genuinely change their minds. They help users understand belief evolution rather than reacting to isolated movements.
What typically triggers an opinion shift in prediction markets?
Opinion shifts are typically triggered by verified information, official announcements, or accumulating evidence. They can also result from resolving ambiguity that previously split opinion. In some cases, sustained minority belief gains traction and becomes dominant. These triggers are visible through persistent probability changes.
How can analysts distinguish an opinion shift from short-term volatility?
Opinion shifts persist across multiple time intervals and are supported by volume and participation. Short-term volatility often reverses quickly and lacks reinforcement. Analysts examine forecast persistence and confidence signals to confirm a shift. Prediction markets data provides the historical context needed.
How do opinion shifts affect forecast interpretation in prediction markets?
Opinion shifts change how probabilities should be interpreted going forward. After a shift, earlier forecasts become less relevant. Analysts often reset baselines and reassess risk following major shifts. This improves accuracy and model stability.
Real-World Example
On Polymarket, a market may favor one outcome for weeks before steadily moving toward another after new evidence emerges. That sustained change represents an opinion shift.
Opinion Shift and FinFeedAPI
FinFeedAPI’s Prediction Markets API provides prediction markets data needed to detect opinion shifts. Analysts can track probability histories, measure persistence, and align changes with event timelines. This supports consensus tracking, shift detection, and belief evolution analysis. The API enables consistent identification of opinion shifts across prediction markets.