Outcome Confirmation
In prediction markets, outcome confirmation happens after an apparent real-world result is known. The market checks that this result matches the predefined rules and resolution source.
This step is about verification, not forecasting. It ensures that the reported outcome is accurate, complete, and sourced correctly. Outcome confirmation may involve waiting for official publications, final data revisions, or validator review. Until confirmation is complete, the market remains unresolved. This process reduces errors and disputes. It creates a clear checkpoint between uncertainty and final resolution.
For analysts, outcome confirmation explains why markets sometimes pause after an event occurs. It marks the transition from expected result to verified fact in prediction markets data.
Why It Matters
Outcome confirmation protects data integrity. It ensures prediction markets resolve based on verified facts rather than assumptions or premature signals.
How is outcome confirmation different from resolution in prediction markets?
Outcome confirmation verifies that the result is correct and eligible for resolution. Resolution is the formal step that finalizes the outcome and closes the market. Confirmation happens first, resolution follows. Separating the two reduces mistakes and disputes.
What can delay outcome confirmation in prediction markets?
Outcome confirmation can be delayed by late data releases, unclear sources, or conflicting reports. Some events require final revisions or official certification. Dispute windows or validator review can also extend confirmation time. These delays prioritize accuracy over speed.
How does outcome confirmation affect prediction markets data analysis?
Until outcome confirmation is complete, prediction markets data should be treated as provisional. Analysts should avoid using unconfirmed outcomes for accuracy or backtesting. Confirmation defines when results become trustworthy inputs. This distinction is critical for reliable evaluation.
Real-World Example
On Kalshi, a market tied to an economic indicator may wait for the final official release before confirming the outcome. Preliminary numbers alone are not sufficient for confirmation.
Outcome Confirmation and FinFeedAPI
FinFeedAPI’s Prediction Markets API provides prediction markets data that reflects outcome confirmation and resolution status. Analysts can track when outcomes move from expected to confirmed and then resolved. This supports lifecycle-aware analysis, accurate backtesting, and data validation. The API enables consistent handling of outcome confirmation across prediction markets.