Outcome Probability Stream
In prediction markets, probabilities update whenever trades occur or new information is absorbed. An outcome probability stream captures these updates as a live or time-ordered sequence.
Rather than showing a single snapshot, the stream reveals the full path of belief changes. It includes small adjustments, sudden jumps, and periods of stability.
Outcome probability streams are useful for monitoring market responsiveness. They show how quickly markets react to signals and whether updates are smooth or volatile.
The stream also reflects market conditions. Strong liquidity often produces gradual movements, while thin markets can create sharp swings.
For analysts, probability streams turn prediction markets data into a dynamic signal. They enable detection of overreaction, persistence, and timing effects that are invisible in static probabilities.
Why It Matters
Static probabilities hide behavior. Outcome probability streams help users understand how confident, reactive, and stable prediction markets really are.
What is an outcome probability stream in prediction markets?
In prediction markets, an outcome probability stream is a real-time or historical sequence of probability updates. It shows how the market’s belief about an outcome evolves. This provides more insight than a single probability point. It is essential for timing-aware analysis.
How are outcome probability streams used in prediction markets data analysis?
Analysts use outcome probability streams to study reaction speed, volatility, and belief shifts. Streams help identify patterns like overreaction, delayed updates, or forecast persistence. They also support backtesting and behavioral analysis. This makes prediction markets data more informative.
Why are outcome probability streams important for prediction markets APIs?
Prediction markets APIs are the primary way to access outcome probability streams at scale. APIs provide time-stamped probability updates across markets. This enables real-time monitoring, automated analysis, and model integration. Without APIs, probability streams are difficult to manage consistently.
Real-World Example
On Polymarket, an election outcome’s probability updates continuously as trades occur. The outcome probability stream shows how beliefs respond to news, debates, and voting results over time.
Outcome Probability Stream and FinFeedAPI
FinFeedAPI’s Prediction Markets API provides structured outcome probability streams across prediction markets. Analysts can consume latest and historical probability updates for modeling, monitoring, and analysis. This supports signal detection, timing analysis, and forecast evaluation. The API enables consistent access to probability streams across prediction markets.