Outcomes
In prediction markets, every market is built around a defined set of outcomes. These outcomes describe what can ultimately happen, such as “Yes” or “No,” a specific candidate winning, or a measurable event crossing a threshold. Traders express their beliefs by buying or selling shares tied to these outcomes.
Outcomes must be clearly defined and objectively verifiable. Clear outcome definitions ensure that markets resolve fairly and that prediction markets data remains trustworthy. On platforms like Polymarket, Kalshi, Myriad, and Manifold, outcomes are written precisely to avoid ambiguity at resolution.
Over the life of a market, probabilities shift between outcomes as new information appears. The final resolved outcome becomes the ground truth used to evaluate forecasts and measure market accuracy.
Why It Matters
Outcomes define what prediction markets are actually measuring. Clear outcomes are essential for accurate forecasting and reliable prediction markets data.
Why are well-defined outcomes critical in prediction markets?
Poorly defined outcomes create confusion, disputes, and unreliable resolution. When outcomes are clear, traders know exactly what they are forecasting, and prices reflect genuine belief rather than interpretation risk. This clarity improves the quality of prediction markets data.
How do outcomes shape market behavior?
The number and structure of outcomes influence how traders think and trade. Binary outcomes encourage clear probability estimates, while multi-outcome markets introduce complexity and distributional thinking. These design choices directly affect prediction markets data and how beliefs are expressed.
What can analysts learn from outcome-level data?
Analysts can compare probabilities across outcomes, track how belief shifts between alternatives, and measure forecast accuracy after resolution. Outcome-level prediction markets data also reveals where uncertainty was concentrated and how consensus formed.
Real-World Example
A Polymarket market asks whether a specific regulation will pass before a deadline. The outcomes are clearly defined as “Yes” or “No,” allowing traders to assign probabilities and update them as legislative developments occur.
Outcomes and FinFeedAPI
Working with outcomes requires structured, machine-readable definitions and resolution data. FinFeed's Prediction Markets API provides detailed prediction markets data—including outcome, probabilities, and final resolutions—so developers can track outcome-level forecasts, analyze accuracy, and build forecasting applications.