Polls capture what a selected group of people says or thinks at the time they are surveyed. They are useful snapshots, but they are static and depend heavily on sampling methods, question wording, and timing. Once published, a poll does not update until a new one is released.
In prediction markets, polls are treated as signals rather than answers. Traders compare poll results with other information such as trends, past accuracy, turnout assumptions, and recent events. On platforms like Polymarket, Kalshi, Myriad, and Manifold, new polls often cause short-term price movements, which then stabilize as the market weighs their reliability. This process is visible in prediction markets data as brief reactions followed by adjustment.
Polls matter most when they are consistent, timely, and aligned with other indicators. When they conflict with broader signals, markets often discount them.
Polls influence expectations but do not determine outcomes on their own. Understanding their role helps analysts interpret prediction markets data more accurately.
Poll releases often trigger immediate market reactions as traders update probabilities. The size and direction of the move depend on how surprising the poll is and how credible it seems. Prediction markets data shows that markets usually adjust again after the initial reaction as traders reassess the poll’s quality.
Markets account for factors polls may miss, such as turnout differences, late-breaking events, and historical bias. Traders also weigh how polls performed in similar past situations. This is why prediction markets data can diverge from headline poll numbers while still producing accurate forecasts.
Analysts can spot overreactions, identify which polls the market trusts, and detect shifts in confidence over time. Persistent gaps between polls and market prices may signal hidden risks or unaccounted factors. This comparison adds depth to the analysis of prediction markets data.
After a new election poll is released, a Polymarket market moves sharply in one direction. Over the next day, the probability partially reverses as traders compare the poll with historical trends and turnout assumptions, settling at a more balanced level.
Analyzing the impact of polls requires tracking how probabilities move before and after poll releases. FinFeed's Prediction Markets API provides structured prediction markets data—time-stamped probability paths and historical forecasts—that allow analysts to study how polls influence markets and how quickly prices adjust.
