Price Change
In prediction markets, price change captures the movement from one price level to another. It can be measured over seconds, minutes, days, or any defined interval.
A positive price change indicates rising belief in an outcome, while a negative change shows declining confidence. The size of the change reflects how strong that shift is. Price change does not explain why a move happened. It must be interpreted alongside volume, liquidity, and participation to understand its cause. Small price changes are common and often reflect routine trading. Large changes usually signal new information, behavioral reactions, or concentrated trading activity.
For analysts, price change is a basic but powerful unit in prediction markets data. It enables comparison across time, events, and market conditions.
Why It Matters
Price change quantifies belief updates. It helps users identify when and how strongly market expectations are shifting.
How is price change calculated in prediction markets?
Price change is calculated by subtracting an earlier outcome price from a later one. Analysts may use absolute change or percentage change depending on context. The time window chosen affects interpretation. Short windows highlight reactions, while longer windows show trends.
What does a large price change indicate in prediction markets?
A large price change usually signals a significant shift in belief. This can be caused by new information, major trades, or sudden changes in attention. In low-liquidity markets, large changes may also reflect fragility. Analysts check supporting signals to confirm meaning.
How is price change used in prediction markets data analysis?
Price change is used to detect reactions, trends, and anomalies. Analysts compare changes with volume and liquidity to separate information-driven moves from noise. Repeated price changes over time reveal persistence or instability. This improves forecast interpretation and modeling.
Real-World Example
On Polymarket, an outcome price moving from 0.45 to 0.60 after a major announcement represents a strong positive price change. Analysts examine whether the move is supported by volume or quickly reverses.
Price Change and FinFeedAPI
FinFeedAPI’s Prediction Markets API provides time-stamped outcome prices needed to calculate price change. Analysts can measure changes across custom intervals and align them with volume, liquidity, and resolution data. This supports reaction analysis, trend detection, and forecast evaluation. The API enables consistent price change analysis across prediction markets.