Price outcomes represent where a prediction market ultimately lands after processing all available information. As traders react to news, data, and signals, prices move up and down. The price outcome is the final result of that process, showing the market’s best estimate at a given moment or at close.
In prediction markets, price outcomes matter because they summarize everything that happened during the market’s life. They capture belief updates, information shocks, corrections, and sentiment shifts in a single number. On platforms like Polymarket, Kalshi, Myriad, and Manifold, these outcomes are visible as the last traded price or probability before the event resolves.
Over time, collections of price outcomes form an important part of prediction markets data. They allow analysts to compare forecasts with real results and evaluate how well markets performed.
Price outcomes show how well prediction markets aggregated information. They are the key link between market behavior and real-world results in prediction markets data.
Price outcomes represent the market’s final consensus before reality is known. They are often used as forecasts by analysts, journalists, and researchers. Because they reflect all prior trading, they provide a compact and powerful signal within prediction markets data.
Early prices often reflect base rates, intuition, or limited information. Price outcomes incorporate weeks or months of updates, corrections, and reactions to real events. This makes them more informed and usually more accurate than early-stage probabilities in prediction markets data.
Analysts can measure accuracy, calibration, and bias by comparing price outcomes to actual resolutions. Large gaps reveal mispricing or unexpected events, while close matches indicate strong forecasting. These comparisons are central to evaluating prediction markets data quality.
A Polymarket election market closes at a 72% probability for one candidate just before voting begins. After the election result is confirmed, analysts compare the final price outcome to the actual result to assess how well the market anticipated the outcome.
Studying price outcomes requires clean final prices and historical context. FinFeed's Prediction Markets API provides structured prediction markets data—including final prices so developers can analyze price outcomes, measure accuracy, and build forecasting evaluation tools.
