Resolution
In prediction markets, forecasts remain active until an event is resolved. Resolution is the step where the market determines which outcome is correct based on predefined rules. This process relies on specified data sources, verification methods, or governance mechanisms. The goal is to ensure the outcome reflects what actually happened in the real world.
Resolution can be immediate or delayed. Delays often occur when data must be verified, disputes are possible, or oracle updates are required. Once resolution occurs, probabilities stop updating and payouts are calculated. The market transitions from a live forecasting phase to a completed state.
For analysts, resolution defines the moment when prediction markets data becomes final. It separates predictive signals from confirmed results. Over time, consistent resolution practices are essential for trust. They ensure historical data is reliable for evaluation, backtesting, and modeling.
Why It Matters
Without resolution, prediction markets cannot function. Resolution ensures forecasts are settled correctly and data can be trusted for analysis.
What does resolution mean in prediction markets?
In prediction markets, resolution is the act of confirming the final outcome of an event. It determines which outcome is correct according to market rules. This enables settlement and payout. Resolution is the foundation of forecast evaluation.
How does resolution affect prediction markets data?
Resolution freezes prediction markets data for an event. Probabilities stop changing and outcomes become fixed. This allows analysts to compare forecasts with actual results. Without resolution, historical analysis would remain uncertain.
Why is resolution important for prediction markets APIs?
Prediction markets APIs expose resolution status and outcome data programmatically. This allows systems to detect when markets are finalized. Resolution data is essential for backtesting, reporting, and model training. APIs make resolution machine-readable and consistent.
Real-World Example
On Polymarket, once an election result is officially confirmed, the market resolves and payouts are distributed based on the resolved outcome.
Resolution and FinFeedAPI
FinFeedAPI’s Prediction Markets API provides structured resolution data alongside live prediction markets data. Analysts can track when markets resolve, retrieve final outcomes, and analyze pre-resolution behavior. This supports accuracy measurement, lifecycle analysis, and historical research. The API enables consistent handling of resolution across prediction markets.