Resolution Finality
In prediction markets, outcomes often go through a resolution process before becoming final. Resolution finality defines when that process is complete and no further disputes or updates are allowed.
Before finality, outcomes may be provisional. They can be challenged, reviewed, or delayed due to verification steps, oracle updates, or governance processes. Once finality is reached, payouts are locked in and historical records are fixed. At this stage, prediction markets data related to the event becomes stable and suitable for long-term analysis.
Resolution finality is especially important in markets with disputes or oracle delays. It provides a clear boundary between temporary uncertainty and confirmed truth.
For analysts, finality explains when probabilities stop being signals and start being facts. It is critical for backtesting, accuracy measurement, and model validation.
Why It Matters
Without resolution finality, prediction markets cannot produce reliable historical data. Finality ensures that outcomes, payouts, and probabilities can be trusted for decision-making and analysis.
What does resolution finality mean in prediction markets?
In prediction markets, resolution finality means an outcome can no longer be changed. All disputes are settled and the result is locked. This guarantees that payouts are correct and permanent. It creates confidence in market outcomes.
How does resolution finality affect prediction markets data?
Resolution finality determines when prediction markets data becomes fixed. Before finality, outcome-related data may still change or be reversed. After finality, data is stable and suitable for performance analysis. Analysts rely on this distinction to avoid using incomplete records.
Why is resolution finality important for prediction markets APIs?
Prediction markets APIs expose resolution states and timestamps. Knowing when finality is reached helps analysts filter provisional data from confirmed outcomes. It is essential for backtesting, reporting, and model training. APIs make resolution finality explicit and machine-readable.
Real-World Example
On Kalshi, a market may resolve after an official data release but only reach finality once all review periods have passed. At that point, the outcome is permanent and payouts are settled.
Resolution Finality and FinFeedAPI
FinFeedAPI’s Prediction Markets API provides prediction markets data with resolution. Analysts can identify when markets transition from provisional to final states. This supports accurate historical analysis, confidence assessment, and model evaluation. The API enables consistent handling of resolution finality across prediction markets.