Resolution Source
In prediction markets, outcomes cannot be resolved arbitrarily. The resolution source defines exactly where the final confirmation comes from, such as an official announcement, dataset, or publication.
This source is specified when the market is created. It removes uncertainty by making clear which evidence will be used and which will be ignored.
Resolution sources are critical when multiple reports or interpretations exist. Even widely reported information does not matter unless it matches the defined source.
The quality of the resolution source affects trust. Reliable, transparent sources lead to smoother resolution and fewer disputes.
For analysts, the resolution source explains why and when a market resolved. It provides essential context for interpreting prediction markets data and resolution timing.
Why It Matters
The resolution source ensures outcomes are decided consistently. It protects fairness, reduces disputes, and makes prediction markets data reliable.
How is a resolution source different from a validator in prediction markets?
A resolution source provides the factual reference used to decide the outcome. A validator checks that reference and applies the rules. Validators do not create facts; they verify them. Confusing the two can lead to misunderstanding resolution mechanics.
What makes a good resolution source for a prediction market?
A good resolution source is public, authoritative, and unambiguous. It should publish clear results on a known schedule. Sources that are vague or subject to revision increase dispute risk. Strong sources improve market confidence and data quality.
What happens if the resolution source is unclear or delayed?
If the resolution source is unclear, resolution may be disputed or postponed. Delayed sources extend unresolved periods and slow settlement. This affects market lifecycle and analysis timelines. Analysts must account for these delays when evaluating prediction markets data.
Real-World Example
On Kalshi, a market predicting inflation may use an official government statistics release as its resolution source. The market resolves only when that specific data is published.
Resolution Source and FinFeedAPI
FinFeedAPI’s Prediction Markets API includes resolution source information as part of event metadata. Analysts can identify which references were used to resolve outcomes and align resolution timing with external data releases. This supports auditability, lifecycle analysis, and accurate backtesting. The API enables consistent analysis of resolution sources across prediction markets.