Resolution Time
In prediction markets, resolution time is when an event transitions from uncertain to finalized. It occurs after the outcome is verified using the market’s predefined rules and source of truth.
Resolution time does not always align with when the real-world event happens. Verification delays, data publication schedules, or dispute windows can shift the official resolution later. Once resolution time is reached, probabilities stop updating. The market moves from forecasting to settlement and historical record.
Resolution time varies across markets and event types. Simple events may resolve quickly, while complex or ambiguous ones can take longer.
For analysts, resolution time defines when prediction markets data becomes final. It is the cutoff used for accuracy measurement, backtesting, and performance analysis.
Why It Matters
Resolution time determines when forecasts can be evaluated. It ensures prediction markets data is compared against confirmed outcomes, not assumptions.
Why does resolution time differ from the event date in prediction markets?
Resolution time depends on verification, not occurrence. Markets wait for official confirmation from the source of truth. Delays protect accuracy and reduce disputes. This separation is intentional and common.
How does resolution time affect forecast evaluation?
Forecasts can only be evaluated after resolution time. Prices before this point remain provisional. Using pre-resolution data for accuracy analysis leads to errors. Resolution time defines when evaluation is valid.
What causes long resolution times in prediction markets?
Long resolution times are often caused by delayed data releases, ambiguous outcomes, or dispute processes. Governance checks or validator review can also extend resolution. These delays prioritize correctness over speed. Analysts must account for them in lifecycle analysis.
Real-World Example
On Kalshi, a market tied to an economic statistic may resolve hours or days after the reference agency publishes final data. The resolution time reflects when the data is officially confirmed.
Resolution Time and FinFeedAPI
FinFeedAPI’s Prediction Markets API provides resolution time as part of prediction markets data. Analysts can identify exactly when events resolve and align forecasts with final outcomes. This supports accurate backtesting, lifecycle analysis, and performance measurement. The API enables consistent handling of resolution timing across prediction markets.