Resolved Event
In prediction markets, an event moves through several stages before it is resolved. A resolved event is one where the outcome has been confirmed using the market’s predefined rules and source of truth.
Once resolved, probabilities stop updating and no further trading affects the outcome. The market shifts from forecasting to evaluation and settlement.
Resolution does not always happen immediately after the real-world event occurs. Verification, data publication, or dispute windows can delay when an event is formally marked as resolved. Resolved events form the historical record of prediction markets. They provide the completed data needed to judge how forecasts performed over time.
For analysts, resolved events are essential. Only after resolution can prediction markets data be used for accuracy measurement, backtesting, and model validation.
Why It Matters
Resolved events turn predictions into facts. They make it possible to evaluate forecast quality and trust prediction markets data.
How can you tell when a prediction market event is resolved?
A prediction market event is resolved when its status changes to final and the winning outcome is confirmed. This is usually visible in market metadata or resolution flags. After this point, probabilities no longer change. Settlement follows shortly after.
Why do some prediction market events take time to resolve?
Some events require verification from official sources or allow time for disputes. Data releases, clarifications, or governance checks can delay resolution. This protects accuracy but extends the lifecycle. Delays are part of maintaining reliable outcomes.
How are resolved events used in prediction markets data analysis?
Resolved events provide the ground truth for analysis. Analysts compare pre-resolution probabilities with final outcomes to measure accuracy and forecast error. Resolved events are also used in backtesting and performance benchmarking. Without them, analysis remains incomplete.
Real-World Example
On Polymarket, once an election result is officially confirmed and reviewed, the market is marked as resolved. The winning outcome is finalized and the event enters the historical dataset.
Resolved Event and FinFeedAPI
FinFeedAPI’s Prediction Markets API provides clear indicators for resolved events within prediction markets data. Analysts can identify when events transition from live to resolved and retrieve final outcomes. This supports accuracy analysis, backtesting, and lifecycle tracking. The API enables consistent handling of resolved events across prediction markets.