Short-Term Forecast
In prediction markets, short-term forecasts occur shortly before an event resolves or before trading closes. By this stage, most relevant information is already available.
These forecasts are shaped by concrete signals such as official announcements, data releases, or clearly emerging outcomes. Prices tend to move faster but within narrower ranges. Short-term forecasts usually show higher stability than early forecasts. Sudden changes at this stage often indicate new decisive information or late corrections.
Because uncertainty is lower, short-term forecasts are commonly used for evaluation. They are often compared directly with final outcomes to assess accuracy.
For analysts, short-term forecasts capture how markets behave when uncertainty is nearly resolved. They provide insight into responsiveness, overreaction, and final convergence in prediction markets data.
Why It Matters
Short-term forecasts reflect the market’s most informed beliefs. They are key for evaluating accuracy and late-stage behavior.
How do short-term forecasts differ from long-term forecasts in prediction markets?
Short-term forecasts are made close to resolution with more information available. Long-term forecasts occur when uncertainty is high and evidence is sparse. Short-term prices tend to be more stable and accurate. Comparing the two shows how markets learn over time.
Why are short-term forecasts often more accurate in prediction markets?
Short-term forecasts benefit from accumulated information and broader participation. Many uncertainties have already been resolved. This reduces error and volatility. Accuracy typically improves as resolution approaches.
How are short-term forecasts used in prediction markets data analysis?
Analysts use short-term forecasts to measure final accuracy and calibration. They study late-stage price movements to detect overreaction or correction. Short-term forecasts also serve as benchmarks for model evaluation. This analysis improves interpretation of prediction markets data.
Real-World Example
On Polymarket, a market predicting an election may show stable prices in the final days before resolution. These prices represent short-term forecasts.
Short-Term Forecast and FinFeedAPI
FinFeedAPI’s Prediction Markets API provides prediction markets data that includes short-term forecast values near resolution. Analysts can retrieve late-stage probability updates and analyze convergence behavior. This supports accuracy evaluation, calibration studies, and responsiveness analysis. The API enables consistent access to short-term forecast data across prediction markets.