Winning Outcome
In prediction markets, multiple outcomes are traded before an event resolves. The winning outcome is the one that matches the real-world result according to the market’s rules.
This outcome is confirmed during resolution using the predefined source of truth. Once confirmed, it becomes the basis for settlement and payouts. Only one outcome is typically designated as the winner in binary or winner-take-all markets. In more complex structures, rules define how winning outcomes are selected.
The designation of the winning outcome freezes the market state. Prices stop updating and all remaining uncertainty is removed.
For analysts, the winning outcome is the reference point for evaluation. All prediction markets data before resolution is judged against this final result.
Why It Matters
The winning outcome turns forecasts into measurable results. It allows prediction markets to be evaluated for accuracy, calibration, and reliability.
How is the winning outcome determined in prediction markets?
The winning outcome is determined using the market’s predefined resolution rules. These rules specify timing, conditions, and the source of truth used for verification. Once the criteria are met, the outcome is confirmed. No other information is considered outside those rules.
Can a winning outcome ever be changed after resolution?
In most prediction markets, the winning outcome is final once resolution is complete. Changes only occur if a formal dispute process reopens the decision. This is rare and governed by strict rules. Finality is important for trust and data integrity.
How is the winning outcome used in prediction markets data analysis?
Analysts use the winning outcome as ground truth. Forecast probabilities are compared against it to measure accuracy and forecast error. It is also used in backtesting and model evaluation. Without a winning outcome, analysis remains incomplete.
Real-World Example
On Polymarket, if an election market resolves with a specific candidate declared the winner, that outcome becomes the winning outcome and pays out to holders of that position.
Winning Outcome and FinFeedAPI
FinFeedAPI’s Prediction Markets API provides prediction markets data that includes finalized winning outcomes. Analysts can retrieve resolution results and align them with historical probability data. This supports accuracy analysis, backtesting, and performance evaluation. The API enables consistent use of winning outcome data across prediction markets.