Yes/No contracts turn real-world events into tradable markets. Each contract represents a single question—such as whether a company will meet earnings expectations or whether a policy will pass. Traders buy “Yes” or “No” shares depending on what they believe will occur, and the contract settles at 1 if the event happens and 0 if it does not.
Because contracts trade between 0 and 1 (or 0 and 100 depending on the platform), the price shows the market’s collective estimate of probability. A contract priced at 0.72 suggests a 72% chance the event will occur. This creates a transparent, data-driven way to understand crowd expectations.
Yes/No contracts are popular because they’re simple, intuitive, and easy to analyze. They help traders, researchers, and forecasters interpret sentiment around elections, economic releases, corporate performance, and global events. Over time, these markets often react quickly to new information, making them powerful real-time indicators.
Yes/No contracts convert crowd sentiment into actionable probability signals. They help traders and analysts understand expectations, measure uncertainty, and forecast outcomes using real-time market behavior.
The price of a Yes/No contract maps directly to the market’s estimated probability. A Yes contract trading at 0.40 implies a 40% chance the event will occur, while No would trade near 0.60. As new information emerges, prices adjust to reflect updated expectations. This mechanism makes the market behave like a live forecasting model. Traders rely on these signals to interpret how confident the crowd is.
Yes/No markets gather input from many independent traders who each act on their own information. This collective decision-making often produces accurate predictions because it aggregates diverse perspectives. Prices adjust quickly during news releases or major updates, keeping forecasts current. These features make Yes/No contracts useful for tracking elections, economic data, or policy decisions. They offer clearer probabilities than typical polls or expert commentary.
Traders buy contracts when they believe the market underestimates the true probability. If the event occurs, “Yes” settles at 1; if it doesn’t, “No” settles at 1. Profits come from aligning positions with the most likely outcome before the market fully adjusts. Some traders hold until settlement, while others trade shorter-term sentiment swings. This flexibility allows both long-term forecasters and active traders to participate.
A market asks whether a central bank will raise interest rates at its next meeting. The Yes contract trades at 0.35, reflecting a 35% probability. After a strong inflation report, the price rises to 0.60 as traders reassess expectations. The market updates instantly, showing how sentiment shifts with new data.
FinFeedAPI’s Prediction Market API provides real-time and historical data for Yes/No contracts across many event categories. Developers can track how probabilities evolve, study crowd reactions to news, or build dashboards that compare market-based forecasts with actual outcomes.
This makes it easier to integrate prediction-driven insights into trading models, research workflows, or decision-support tools.
