Yes Price
In prediction markets, each outcome has its own price. The Yes price represents the cost of holding a position that pays out if the event occurs.
Yes price is commonly interpreted as a probability. For example, a Yes price of 0.65 suggests the market estimates a 65% chance of the event happening. This price updates continuously as participants trade. Buying Yes shares pushes the price up, while selling pushes it down. Yes price reflects collective belief, not certainty. It aggregates opinions, information, and risk tolerance across all traders.
For analysts, Yes price is a core signal in prediction markets data. It is used to track belief changes, compare forecasts, and evaluate accuracy after resolution.
Why It Matters
Yes price is the simplest expression of market belief. It allows users to quickly understand how likely an event is considered to occur.
How does the Yes price change in prediction markets?
The Yes price changes when participants buy or sell Yes shares. Increased demand pushes the price higher, while selling pressure lowers it. These changes reflect updated beliefs or reactions to new information. Liquidity and market depth influence how fast the price moves.
How should Yes price be interpreted in prediction markets data analysis?
Yes price is often treated as a probability estimate, but context matters. Analysts consider liquidity, volatility, and confidence signals alongside the price. A stable Yes price with strong liquidity is more reliable than one driven by thin trading. Interpretation improves when combined with other prediction markets data.
What is the difference between Yes price and forecast accuracy?
Yes price shows current belief, not whether that belief will be correct. Forecast accuracy is measured only after resolution by comparing Yes prices to actual outcomes. High Yes prices can still be wrong. Accuracy analysis requires historical Yes price data and resolution results.
Real-World Example
On Polymarket, a Yes price of 0.80 on an election outcome indicates strong market belief that the event will occur. If traders begin selling, the Yes price may fall as confidence decreases.
Yes Price and FinFeedAPI
FinFeedAPI’s Prediction Markets API provides Yes price data as part of outcome-level prediction markets data. Analysts can track Yes price changes over time, compare them across events, and evaluate performance after resolution. This supports probability analysis, modeling, and forecast evaluation. The API enables consistent access to Yes price data across prediction markets.