Outcome
In prediction markets, every event is defined by a set of outcomes. Each outcome represents a distinct way the event could resolve. Participants buy or sell shares tied to these outcomes based on their expectations. The market probability reflects how likely each outcome is believed to be at a given time.
Outcomes must be clearly defined to avoid ambiguity at resolution. Precise outcome definitions help ensure fair settlement and reliable prediction markets data. Some markets have simple binary outcomes, such as “Yes” or “No.” Others may include multiple outcomes, ranges, or structured paths depending on market design.
For analysts, outcomes are the core unit of analysis. All probabilities, forecasts, and performance metrics in prediction markets data are tied back to specific outcomes.
Why It Matters
Outcomes define what is being predicted. Clear outcomes ensure accurate forecasting, fair settlement, and meaningful interpretation of prediction markets data.
What does outcome mean in prediction markets?
In prediction markets, an outcome is a specific result that can occur for an event. Traders take positions on outcomes they believe will resolve as true. Each outcome has its own probability. Outcomes form the basis of all market forecasts.
How do outcomes affect prediction markets data?
Prediction markets data is organized around outcomes. Each outcome has its own probability stream, volume, and resolution status. Analysts study how outcome probabilities change over time. This helps explain belief shifts and forecast accuracy.
Why are outcomes important for prediction markets APIs?
Prediction markets APIs structure data around outcomes. Each outcome is identified, tracked, and resolved separately. Analysts rely on outcome-level data for modeling, monitoring, and evaluation. APIs make outcome-specific prediction markets data accessible and consistent.
Real-World Example
On Polymarket, an election market may have outcomes such as a specific candidate winning or losing. Traders buy shares for the outcome they believe will resolve as true.
Outcome and FinFeedAPI
FinFeedAPI’s Prediction Markets API provides outcome-level prediction markets data, including probabilities, updates, and resolution status. Analysts can track how each outcome evolves independently over time. This supports detailed forecasting analysis, confidence modeling, and performance evaluation. The API enables consistent outcome-level analysis across prediction markets.