Final Forecast
In prediction markets, forecasts evolve until trading stops or resolution occurs. The final forecast is the last observed probability before the outcome is confirmed.
This forecast reflects the most informed consensus available at the time. It incorporates all publicly available information, trading activity, and participant belief up to that point. Final forecasts often receive the most analytical attention. They are commonly used as the primary reference for accuracy and performance evaluation.
However, final forecasts are still probabilistic. Even very high final probabilities can be wrong, especially in rare or unexpected events.
For analysts, the final forecast serves as a key benchmark. It is compared against the final outcome to calculate forecast accuracy, error, and calibration in prediction markets data.
Why It Matters
The final forecast represents the market’s best estimate before uncertainty is resolved. It is central to evaluating how well prediction markets perform.
How is a final forecast different from the initial forecast in prediction markets?
The initial forecast reflects early belief with limited information. The final forecast reflects belief after extensive trading and information flow. Comparing the two shows how much the market learned. This contrast is useful for studying efficiency and bias.
When should the final forecast be used for analysis?
Final forecasts should be used after trading has effectively ended but before resolution. They are best suited for accuracy and calibration studies. Analysts avoid using post-resolution data, which is no longer a forecast. Proper timing is essential.
Can the final forecast change after the event occurs?
No, the final forecast does not change after resolution. Once an event resolves, probabilities stop updating. Any changes after that point relate to settlement status, not belief. The final forecast remains fixed in historical data.
Real-World Example
On Polymarket, an election market may close with a final forecast of 0.92 for a candidate. That value is then evaluated against the confirmed election result.
Final Forecast and FinFeedAPI
FinFeedAPI’s Prediction Markets API provides prediction markets data that includes the final probability values before resolution. Analysts can identify final forecasts by selecting the last price update prior to resolution time. This supports accuracy analysis, backtesting, and performance evaluation. The API enables consistent retrieval of final forecasts across prediction markets.