Final Outcome
In prediction markets, many outcomes may be possible while an event is active. The final outcome is the one that is officially confirmed once resolution is complete.
This outcome is determined using the market’s predefined rules and resolution source. After confirmation, no further changes are allowed. The final outcome ends the forecasting phase. Probabilities stop updating and the market transitions fully into settlement and historical record. Final outcomes provide closure. They turn uncertainty into a fixed result that can be evaluated and analyzed.
For analysts, the final outcome is the anchor point. All prediction markets data before resolution is assessed relative to this confirmed result.
Over time, collections of final outcomes allow systematic study of forecast accuracy, bias, and learning.
Why It Matters
Final outcomes make prediction markets measurable. They enable objective evaluation of forecasts and data reliability.
How is the final outcome determined in prediction markets?
The final outcome is determined through the resolution process defined at market creation. This process relies on a specific resolution source and verification rules. Once the criteria are met, the outcome is confirmed. No alternative interpretations are considered after confirmation.
Is the final outcome always the same as the winning outcome?
In most markets, the final outcome and winning outcome are the same. However, the term final outcome emphasizes confirmation and closure rather than payout mechanics. It focuses on factual resolution rather than financial results. This distinction is useful in data analysis.
How is the final outcome used in prediction markets data analysis?
Analysts use the final outcome as ground truth. Forecast probabilities are compared against it to measure accuracy and forecast error. It is also used in backtesting and calibration studies. Without final outcomes, prediction markets data cannot be evaluated.
Real-World Example
On Polymarket, once an election result is officially confirmed and validated, that result becomes the final outcome for the market.
Final Outcome and FinFeedAPI
FinFeedAPI’s Prediction Markets API provides finalized outcome data once events resolve. Analysts can retrieve final outcomes and align them with historical probability data. This supports accuracy measurement, backtesting, and performance analysis. The API enables consistent use of final outcome data across prediction markets.