Unresolved Event
In prediction markets, an event remains unresolved until its outcome is officially verified. This can be because the real-world event has not happened yet or because confirmation is still pending.
Unresolved events continue to accept belief updates through trading, unless a closing date has passed. Probabilities may still move as new information arrives or as participants adjust positions. Some events stay unresolved even after the real-world outcome occurs. Verification delays, data publication timing, or dispute windows can extend this phase.
Unresolved status is temporary but important. It signals that outcomes are not final and that probabilities should be treated as provisional.
For analysts, unresolved events represent live forecasting data. They are useful for monitoring behavior but cannot yet be used for accuracy or performance evaluation.
Why It Matters
Unresolved events indicate uncertainty is still active. Recognizing them helps users avoid treating incomplete data as final results.
Why do some prediction market events remain unresolved after the real-world event?
Events may remain unresolved if official data is delayed or verification is required. Markets often wait for a predefined source of truth to publish results. Dispute windows can also pause resolution. This process prioritizes accuracy over speed.
How should unresolved events be handled in prediction markets data analysis?
Unresolved events should be excluded from accuracy and backtesting analysis. Analysts typically focus on price movement, volume, and behavior instead. Treating unresolved data as final can lead to incorrect conclusions. Clear status filtering is essential.
What risks exist when trading or analyzing unresolved events?
Unresolved events carry resolution risk. Outcomes may still change, be disputed, or resolve differently than expected. Prices can reverse sharply near resolution. Analysts and traders should account for this uncertainty.
Real-World Example
On Polymarket, a market predicting a court ruling may remain unresolved even after the decision is announced, while official documentation is reviewed before final resolution.
Unresolved Event and FinFeedAPI
FinFeedAPI’s Prediction Markets API provides event status indicators that identify unresolved events. Analysts can filter live markets, monitor ongoing probability changes, and exclude unresolved events from performance evaluation. This supports accurate lifecycle-aware analysis. The API enables consistent handling of unresolved events across prediction markets.